But don't just take it from me

Happy New Year everyone!

I wanted to let you know that excellent feedback is continuing to flow about my article. I have heard from at least 15 PhDs, including business profs, agronomists, and environmental scientists who tell me my argument is bang on. Interestingly, many of them can't actually say so publicly because taking an advocacy position could be considered a professional conflict of interest. Similarly, I have heard from a number of private individuals who are involved with charitable organizations in the environmental and anti-poverty fields. They too are in agreement with me, but they can't say so publicly in a professional capacity, because guess what? Charitable organizations are not allowed to take a political stance.

Doesn't seem right to me. In fact, it sounds kind of like muzzling.

Mes amis, if trying to save the planet from running out of food and people from starving to death is considered too political these days, then go ahead. Paint me political.

Luckily, and just in the nick of time, I dug up a little scientific and business research to back my case up.

This paper by Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford's Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering ranks corn and cellulosic ethanol DEAD LAST out of twelve new technology solutions for global warming, air pollution and energy security. The paper is very technical so it should satisfy all of you science types. And it is in the public domain, so I can use it. This article from RenewableEnergyWorld.com, also in the public domain, talks about Dr. Jacobson's paper in terms that are easier for the rest of us to grasp. Here is an excerpt:

"The energy alternatives that are good are not the ones that people have been talking about the most. And some options that have been proposed are just downright awful," Jacobson said. "Ethanol-based biofuels will actually cause more harm to human health, wildlife, water supply and land use than current fossil fuels." He added that ethanol may also emit more global-warming pollutants than fossil fuels, according to the latest scientific studies.

The raw energy sources that Jacobson found to be the most promising are, in order, wind, concentrated solar (the use of mirrors to heat a fluid), geothermal, tidal, solar photovoltaics (rooftop solar panels), wave and hydroelectric. He recommends against nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, corn ethanol and cellulosic ethanol, which is made of prairie grass. In fact, he found cellulosic ethanol was worse than corn ethanol because it results in more air pollution, requires more land to produce and causes more damage to wildlife."

This paper, also by Dr. Jacobson, studies the health effects of ethanol as compared to gasoline. Here is an excerpt:

"Due to its ozone effects, future E85 may be a greater overall public health risk than gasoline. However, because of the uncertainty in future emission regulations, it can be concluded with confidence only that E85 is unlikely to improve air quality over future gasoline vehicles."

Next, this paper, by Dr David Pimentel, of Cornell's College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, looks at ethanol from the standpoint of an agricultural scientist. Here is an excerpt from Dr. Pimentel's review:

"The environmental impacts of corn ethanol are serious and diverse. These include severe soil erosion of valuable cropland, plus the heavy use of nitrogen fertilizer and pesticides that pollute rivers. Large quantities of carbon dioxide are produced and released into the atmosphere because significant amounts of fossil fuel energy are used in ethanol production. Then during the fermentation process, about 25% of the carbon from the sugars and starches is released as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. These two major releases of carbon dioxide significantly contribute to global warming."

Finally, in case you think I'm just making the whole supply/demand/stock levels thing up, take a look at a December 11 article from Canada's GlobeInvestor online business magazine entitled Appetite for Grains About to Revive? Here are a few excerpts from that piece:

"Analysts point to the fact that the amount of wheat, corn and soybeans left unconsumed at the end of the crop year is at historically low levels at a time when the world’s population is growing. While the world wheat crop was the largest ever this year, surplus stocks are the fourth-lowest in 50 years, notes Don Bousquet, a grains market analyst and the host of the long-running Farm Market News broadcast heard on rural radio stations across Western Canada. Farmers next year are expected to cut back on wheat acres planted, given the recent price decline and the high cost of fertilizer, he said. Meanwhile, the U.S. corn crop is expected to be the second-largest on record this year, but surplus stocks should be among the lowest, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. It’s a similar case with soybeans.

...

Another source of strong demand – the push for renewable fuels. In mid-November, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency raised the 2009 renewable fuel standard to 10.21 per cent to ensure at least 11.1 billion gallons of renewable fuels are blended into transportation gasoline. That calls for about 500 million gallons of biodiesel and renewable diesel. Nearly 40 per cent of the U.S. corn crop this year will go towards making ethanol for gasoline, and that percentage will increase in coming years, according to Patricia Mohr, vice-president of Scotia Economics in Toronto.

...

“On a supply-demand basis, grains are now greatly under-priced,” Mr. Coxe wrote in a recent report."

Ethanol. A real stinker on the verge of asphyxiating just about everyone on the planet with the possible exception of a few grain speculators. I'm not the only one thinking it.

I've just spent an entire year of my life struggling to fight what has turned into a mammoth battle between good and evil. David and Goliath for the twenty-first century. This is my life's work. I was given a brain, insight, ideals, a backbone, and the responsibility to use them. I am more fortunate than anyone can know.

I will continue to lead this fight against city hall - with the support of many wonderful people, the smarts of a couple of great brains from Stanford and Cornell, the insight of business gurus from Canada's National Newspaper, and a trusty electronic megaphone on my lap to slay a mighty dragon with. The world will watch in awe as the forces of good PREVAIL.